Ontario home sales will rise by 5 per cent in 2011, while prices should hit a record high, according to a report on the state of the Canadian real estate market.
Central 1 Credit Union says a strong market in 2011 will also see housing starts increase by 9 per cent next year, in what has been the most bullish forecast for 2011 so far.
“An undersupply in the new home market will place upward pressure on resale home prices,” said Helmut Pastrick, chief economist with Central 1. “This will provide an incentive for builders to increase housing starts.”
Central 1 also expects house prices to increase by 4.5 per cent in 2011 to $356,500, up by 4.2 per cent.
The report is at odds with other economists who have forecast a far weaker housing market for 2011. It also underlines the difficulties that economists have in trying to read the volatile market moving forward.
While Central 1 says they expect housing starts to go up significantly in Ontario next year, hitting 66,000 units, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation are forecasting that starts will decline to 55,000 units. The Toronto Dominion Bank is also calling for significantly lower starts of 47,000 units. The CMHC, like most other analysts is also expecting Ontario prices to remain flat or increase only slightly in 2011.
“The pace of job growth has started to cool, and we will likely see more cooling especially in the first half of next year,” said Ted Tsiakopoulos, Ontario regional economist for the CMHC.
“I’d say the momentum in Ontario real estate is in the other direction - activity has slowed,” said housing economist Will Dunning. “I would expect 2011 housing numbers in Ontario to be weaker than 2010.”
In order for housing starts, resale prices and sales to increase, you would have to see “a rapid pick up in job creation in Ontario which is not yet in evidence,” said Dunning.
However, the CMHC also released housing start figures for November on Wednesday which defied the expectations of most economists.
Toronto starts hit 51,100 seasonally adjusted and annualized units in November, up by 157 per cent from a month earlier. The stellar figure means starts are now 14 per cent higher this year than last year, and there is still one month to go.
The Toronto surge caught economists by surprise, pushing the national housing start figures to a much better than expected 187,200 units, representing an 11.6 per cent increase.
“The gain was almost entirely driven by a bounce in Toronto multi unit starts…the bigger picture continues to one of more moderate and stabilizing building activity,” said BMO Capital Markets economist Robert Kavcic.
While Ontario saw a massive increase in starts because of the Toronto market, most other provinces saw a decrease.
“Residential construction activity in November was making up for lost ground in October with strong increases in apartment and town home segments of the market,” said Tsiakopoulos. “However, it is unlikely that this above trend pace will be sustained.”
Slower job growth, less first time buyer demand and more choice in resale markets will temper any increases over the short term, said the CMHC.
“The rapid pace of sales earlier this year has resulted in strong starts for November,” said Ontario Home Builders’ Association president Bob Finnigan.
And despite the upbeat tone of the Central 1 report, Ontario builders are not gearing up for a record year.
“Looking forward to 2011 we are anticipating the housing market to level out with a moderate pace of activity,” said Finnigan.
Finnigan said home builders are pushing for the government to focus on job creation in 2011.
“We are watchful of the job market, because employment is a key indicator of economic health and something that could dampen performance in the coming year.”
December 8, 2010 in Toronto Real Estate Forecast
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
New Rules for Lending Tightening
As Federal finance Minister Jim Flaherty announced new rules Tuesday aimed at preventing homebuyers from getting into financial difficulty when mortgage rates rise.
After consulting with major Canadian lenders, Flaherty outlined the latest weapons at Ottawa's disposal aimed at removing some of the speculative froth in the housing market.
"There is no evidence of a housing bubble, but we're taking prudent steps today to prevent one," he said at a news conference in Ottawa. "If some lenders aren't willing to act themselves, we will act."
Federal finance Minister Jim Flaherty has announced new rules aimed at preventing homebuyers from getting in over their heads with mortgage debt.Federal finance Minister Jim Flaherty has announced new rules aimed at preventing homebuyers from getting in over their heads with mortgage debt. (Pawel Dwulit/Canadian Press)
Broadly speaking, the plan unveiled has three components.
First, Ottawa will require that all borrowers meet the standards for a five-year fixed-rate mortgage, even if they choose a variable mortgage with a lower rate or a shorter term.
"This will guard against higher rates in the future," Flaherty said.
Second, the rules would lower the maximum Canadians can withdraw when refinancing their mortgages to 90 per cent of the value of their home, from 95 per cent.
And finally, Ottawa will now require a minimum 20 per cent down payment to qualify for CMHC insurance for non-owner-occupied properties purchased as an investment.
The last rule is aimed at reining in would-be real estate speculators who own multiple properties beyond their primary residence.
"We want to discourage the tendency some people have to use a home as an ATM, or buy three or four condos on speculation," Flaherty said.
Minimum down payment unchanged
There had been speculation the Department of Finance might implement legislation raising the minimum down payment from five to 10 per cent of a home's value, or reduce the maximum amortization period from 35 years to 30 years.
Those measures were not part of Flaherty's announcement Tuesday, but all options are still on the table should circumstances change, Flaherty said.
The adjustments to the mortgage insurance guarantee framework, to be implemented as of April 19, 2010, are not likely to revolutionize the industry. Indeed, current policies at some large Canadian lenders are similar to the first peg of Flaherty's plan.
After Tuesday's announcement, the Bank of Montreal noted that it already requires its high-ratio borrowers to be able to qualify using the five-year rate. And all banks currently test all mortgage applicants on a three-year fixed-rate mortgage rule, Toronto-Dominion bank says.
People walk past new homes that are for sale in Oakville, Ont., in April. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty introduced new rules designed to rein in the real estate market Tuesday.People walk past new homes that are for sale in Oakville, Ont., in April. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty introduced new rules designed to rein in the real estate market Tuesday. (Nathan Denette/Canadian Press)
"While we do not believe that Canada faces a housing bubble, we fully support the minister's actions," Bank of Montreal said in a release. "Given the prospect of higher interest rates and the recent run-up in housing prices in some markets across Canada, the measures announced today are prudent."
"This is a little bit late in telling Canadians we need to be more cautious in taking out a mortgage," RBC Global Asset Management chief economist Patricia Croft said in reaction to Flaherty's announcement.
Though she stopped short of calling Canadian real estate in bubble territory already, she said the April 19 date for implementation is actually likely to cause more short-term stimulation of the market, as people scramble to get in under the deadline.
"If you wanted to buy a house, wouldn't you now do it before April?" Croft asked. "It's even more evidence that house prices are going to cool down later this year."
In terms of the impact on real estate buyers, the policy change will have an effect on a large portion of new buyers, TD Bank deputy chief economist Craig Alexander said in a report Tuesday. "Perhaps a quarter of all new mortgage originations might be influenced," he said.
The requirement that all buyers are held to the five-year fixed-rate standards will be particularly important, Alexander said. Based on the average home price of $337,000, a buyer with only five per cent down would require roughly $9,200 more in annual income to qualify under the new rules, he estimated.
For its part, the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals says it supports the amendments, calling them preventative measures against possible future risk.
(as quoted from CBC news)(newsletter)
After consulting with major Canadian lenders, Flaherty outlined the latest weapons at Ottawa's disposal aimed at removing some of the speculative froth in the housing market.
"There is no evidence of a housing bubble, but we're taking prudent steps today to prevent one," he said at a news conference in Ottawa. "If some lenders aren't willing to act themselves, we will act."
Federal finance Minister Jim Flaherty has announced new rules aimed at preventing homebuyers from getting in over their heads with mortgage debt.Federal finance Minister Jim Flaherty has announced new rules aimed at preventing homebuyers from getting in over their heads with mortgage debt. (Pawel Dwulit/Canadian Press)
Broadly speaking, the plan unveiled has three components.
First, Ottawa will require that all borrowers meet the standards for a five-year fixed-rate mortgage, even if they choose a variable mortgage with a lower rate or a shorter term.
"This will guard against higher rates in the future," Flaherty said.
Second, the rules would lower the maximum Canadians can withdraw when refinancing their mortgages to 90 per cent of the value of their home, from 95 per cent.
And finally, Ottawa will now require a minimum 20 per cent down payment to qualify for CMHC insurance for non-owner-occupied properties purchased as an investment.
The last rule is aimed at reining in would-be real estate speculators who own multiple properties beyond their primary residence.
"We want to discourage the tendency some people have to use a home as an ATM, or buy three or four condos on speculation," Flaherty said.
Minimum down payment unchanged
There had been speculation the Department of Finance might implement legislation raising the minimum down payment from five to 10 per cent of a home's value, or reduce the maximum amortization period from 35 years to 30 years.
Those measures were not part of Flaherty's announcement Tuesday, but all options are still on the table should circumstances change, Flaherty said.
The adjustments to the mortgage insurance guarantee framework, to be implemented as of April 19, 2010, are not likely to revolutionize the industry. Indeed, current policies at some large Canadian lenders are similar to the first peg of Flaherty's plan.
After Tuesday's announcement, the Bank of Montreal noted that it already requires its high-ratio borrowers to be able to qualify using the five-year rate. And all banks currently test all mortgage applicants on a three-year fixed-rate mortgage rule, Toronto-Dominion bank says.
People walk past new homes that are for sale in Oakville, Ont., in April. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty introduced new rules designed to rein in the real estate market Tuesday.People walk past new homes that are for sale in Oakville, Ont., in April. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty introduced new rules designed to rein in the real estate market Tuesday. (Nathan Denette/Canadian Press)
"While we do not believe that Canada faces a housing bubble, we fully support the minister's actions," Bank of Montreal said in a release. "Given the prospect of higher interest rates and the recent run-up in housing prices in some markets across Canada, the measures announced today are prudent."
"This is a little bit late in telling Canadians we need to be more cautious in taking out a mortgage," RBC Global Asset Management chief economist Patricia Croft said in reaction to Flaherty's announcement.
Though she stopped short of calling Canadian real estate in bubble territory already, she said the April 19 date for implementation is actually likely to cause more short-term stimulation of the market, as people scramble to get in under the deadline.
"If you wanted to buy a house, wouldn't you now do it before April?" Croft asked. "It's even more evidence that house prices are going to cool down later this year."
In terms of the impact on real estate buyers, the policy change will have an effect on a large portion of new buyers, TD Bank deputy chief economist Craig Alexander said in a report Tuesday. "Perhaps a quarter of all new mortgage originations might be influenced," he said.
The requirement that all buyers are held to the five-year fixed-rate standards will be particularly important, Alexander said. Based on the average home price of $337,000, a buyer with only five per cent down would require roughly $9,200 more in annual income to qualify under the new rules, he estimated.
For its part, the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals says it supports the amendments, calling them preventative measures against possible future risk.
(as quoted from CBC news)(newsletter)
Friday, February 12, 2010
Lending tightening in Canada?
Lender opposes clampdown to rein in mortgage borrowing
February 12, 2010
Gavin's Review:
I believe they will just increase credit ratings necessary and shorten amortization. I feel increasing the min. downpayment would contract the market too much, and that they will be unwilling to do so. Keep in mind that we have a very small sub prime market, and that all owners have equity in the property and proper credit and employment, versus the US market of past.
Dana Flavelle
BUSINESS REPORTER
In a bid to allay fears about a potential U.S.-style housing bubble, Ottawa is considering proposals that would make it tougher for Canadians to borrow to buy a home.
The proposals include raising the minimum down payment and shortening the maximum amortization period (the time it takes to pay off the entire loan), according to the country's sixth-largest mortgage lender.
There have been talks between various banks, the federal finance department and Canada Mortgage and House Corp., said Peter Aceto, president and chief executive of ING Direct Canada.
"There are some concerns because of what's going on with real estate, in terms of rapidly increased property values and the theory they're being fuelled by very low interest rates, that a bubble is being created similar to what happened in the U.S.," Aceto said in an interview Thursday.
Federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty "is actively monitoring the housing market," a spokesperson said in a statement. "There is no clear evidence now of a housing bubble in Canada."
Aceto said ING opposes new mortgage limits because it would cut some creditworthy people out of the market.
"Why should Minister Flaherty be the one to change the rules? Why can't lenders just act responsibly? Speak with their customers and help them make decisions in the best interests of them in the longer term."
But TD Canada Trust president and CEO Tim Hockey said although evidence of a housing bubble is in doubt, Canadians are becoming more indebted at a faster-than-normal pace due to low interest rates.
"It's worth exploring ways to moderate that growth by putting policies in place now as a way of protecting consumers from the effects of anticipated higher rates," Hockey said.
The Canadian Bankers Association said in a statement that it "has not been lobbying the government about proposals that would restrict mortgage lending by raising the down payment and lowering the amortization period."
In the Greater Toronto Area, where the average price of an existing home in January hit $409,058, up 19 per cent compared with a year ago, a minimum 5 per cent down payment would cost an average of $20,452. If the minimum were raised to 10 per cent, the average downpayment would double to $40,905.
Shortening the amortization from the current 35-year maximum to 30 years would boost the average monthly payment by $149 to $1,714.08, assuming a five-year open variable mortgage at 3.05 per cent interest.
(newsletter)
February 12, 2010
Gavin's Review:
I believe they will just increase credit ratings necessary and shorten amortization. I feel increasing the min. downpayment would contract the market too much, and that they will be unwilling to do so. Keep in mind that we have a very small sub prime market, and that all owners have equity in the property and proper credit and employment, versus the US market of past.
Dana Flavelle
BUSINESS REPORTER
In a bid to allay fears about a potential U.S.-style housing bubble, Ottawa is considering proposals that would make it tougher for Canadians to borrow to buy a home.
The proposals include raising the minimum down payment and shortening the maximum amortization period (the time it takes to pay off the entire loan), according to the country's sixth-largest mortgage lender.
There have been talks between various banks, the federal finance department and Canada Mortgage and House Corp., said Peter Aceto, president and chief executive of ING Direct Canada.
"There are some concerns because of what's going on with real estate, in terms of rapidly increased property values and the theory they're being fuelled by very low interest rates, that a bubble is being created similar to what happened in the U.S.," Aceto said in an interview Thursday.
Federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty "is actively monitoring the housing market," a spokesperson said in a statement. "There is no clear evidence now of a housing bubble in Canada."
Aceto said ING opposes new mortgage limits because it would cut some creditworthy people out of the market.
"Why should Minister Flaherty be the one to change the rules? Why can't lenders just act responsibly? Speak with their customers and help them make decisions in the best interests of them in the longer term."
But TD Canada Trust president and CEO Tim Hockey said although evidence of a housing bubble is in doubt, Canadians are becoming more indebted at a faster-than-normal pace due to low interest rates.
"It's worth exploring ways to moderate that growth by putting policies in place now as a way of protecting consumers from the effects of anticipated higher rates," Hockey said.
The Canadian Bankers Association said in a statement that it "has not been lobbying the government about proposals that would restrict mortgage lending by raising the down payment and lowering the amortization period."
In the Greater Toronto Area, where the average price of an existing home in January hit $409,058, up 19 per cent compared with a year ago, a minimum 5 per cent down payment would cost an average of $20,452. If the minimum were raised to 10 per cent, the average downpayment would double to $40,905.
Shortening the amortization from the current 35-year maximum to 30 years would boost the average monthly payment by $149 to $1,714.08, assuming a five-year open variable mortgage at 3.05 per cent interest.
(newsletter)
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
Toronto existing home sales skyrocket 87 per cent
Toronto existing home sales skyrocket 87 per cent
February 3, 2010 Tony Wong
More on Real Estate
What they got Jan
The January real estate market started 2010 at full gallop, with sales up 87 per cent from the year before, according to figures released today.
There were 4,986 existing home sales in January, compared to 2,670 sales the year before when sales hit an all-time low for the month, according to a report by the Toronto Real Estate Board.
“The Greater Toronto Area home market has rebounded well from the lows in sales experienced at the beginning of 2009,” said Tom Lebour, president of the board.
Placed in perspective, this January’s sales were slightly higher than the January average in the years preceding 2009 when the economy faced recession.
The average price of a home this January hit $409,058, up 19 per cent compared with $343,632 in the same month last year.
TREB warned comparisons to last year will continue to be extreme in the first quarter of this year as “we continue to make comparisons to weak market conditions at the beginning of 2009.”
Jason Mercer, senior manager of market analysis for TREB said sales and price growth is expected to be slower in the second half of this year.
February 3, 2010 Tony Wong
More on Real Estate
What they got Jan
The January real estate market started 2010 at full gallop, with sales up 87 per cent from the year before, according to figures released today.
There were 4,986 existing home sales in January, compared to 2,670 sales the year before when sales hit an all-time low for the month, according to a report by the Toronto Real Estate Board.
“The Greater Toronto Area home market has rebounded well from the lows in sales experienced at the beginning of 2009,” said Tom Lebour, president of the board.
Placed in perspective, this January’s sales were slightly higher than the January average in the years preceding 2009 when the economy faced recession.
The average price of a home this January hit $409,058, up 19 per cent compared with $343,632 in the same month last year.
TREB warned comparisons to last year will continue to be extreme in the first quarter of this year as “we continue to make comparisons to weak market conditions at the beginning of 2009.”
Jason Mercer, senior manager of market analysis for TREB said sales and price growth is expected to be slower in the second half of this year.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
